Archive for the ‘sports gambling’ Category

Never go back

October 30, 2008

No apologies, I’m a Norwich fan and this article is linked to them

Never go back.                                                                                                                                        

 

Another week, another generic report informing us that Jamie Cureton is really pumped up for the next match against [insert name of whoever Norwich happen to be playing] and is sure he will break his duck. These scoops increasingly have the hollow ring of a man desperately trying to engender a modicum of confidence in himself, let alone the great reading public of Norfolk.

 

Curo remains a Barclay darling but I’m not quite sure why. As a youngster he made the initial hesitant step from youth team to first XI, but like Chris Llewellyn, Adrian Coote, Lee Lee Lee Power and long line of others, he couldn’t hold down a regular place. Many will fondly remember his bright green barnet sported at Portman Road in April 1996 (those present may recall that he actually washed it off before entering the fray). Mike Walker quietly farmed him out and so started an unremarkable career as a jobbing journeyman lower league striker.

 

A decade passed without club and player reacquainting themselves. Jamie had found himself at Colchester and, with Chris Iwelumo as strike partner, he was in a rich vein of form. Scoring in the home and away fixtures, he further endeared himself to the Norwich faithful by not celebrating his goals as a mark of respect. As the season ended, little Jamie whacked in a transfer request rather pompously claiming the U’s level of ambition did not match his own. Peter Grant, having just seen mercenary midget Mekon Earnshaw engineer a dream move for himself to Premiership highflyers Derby (didn’t they just deserve each other!), and not known for his shrewd judgement in transfer dealings, snapped Curo up as an ideal replacement.

 

And so we all looked forward to JC carrying on where he had imperiously left off at Colchester. Only that didn’t really happen. It turned out that Jamie had a “Heroes” style hidden power, a mercurial talent for converting gilt edged chances into head-in-hands, how did he miss that one, utterances of profanities. Time and again a perfect ball would be slotted through and time and again JC would raise his thumb to the provider with a wan smile after fluffing the opportunity. Those with a number 10 and “Cureton” on the back of their XXL replica shirts will be quick to remind you that he has always had an eye for goal. A look at the stats will show he has scored 199 goals in a career of 538 games stretching back to 1994. So far reasonably impressive, but 101 of those were scored in a purple three season patch between 1998 and 2001. Add in the 24 that secured him the Championship’s Golden Boot at Colchester and you don’t need the intellect of a football agent to deduce that there have been many, ahem, lean seasons for JC.

 

It is a well known truism in football that returning to a club is never a good idea. Ask Mike Walker or Flecky.  We could have looked back on sepia-toned memories of cherubic Jamie and his verdant derby day bouffant, bless him. Instead, we’ll cherish slightly more painful memories of a player who would give Leon “the Assassin” Mackenzie a run for his money in preserving the pristine state of barn doors. With the latest set of accounts setting Mr Doncaster off on a fervent search for pips to set a squeaking and the manager signing a very similar player in Arturo Lupoli – well, similar except for Arturo being much younger, much quicker and an infinitely more clinical finisher – I predict the days of Jamie’s second coming may be drawing to an ignoble close. With the message already spread that Glenn’s January transfer war chest amounts to three buttons and a fruit machine token, Curo may well find that the long line of teams he has turned out for has a new addition just after Christmas.

 

Doctor Bet’s Wealth Tonic – keeping you wealthy and wise

 

Self-respect is the fruit of discipline; the sense of dignity grows with the ability to say no to oneself.  Rabbi Abraham Heschel

 

Perhaps the greatest lesson any punter can learn is that discipline is the key to profitability. Quite simply, in the vast majority of cases the bookmakers have set their odds correctly to ensure the house edge makes them profitable. The sophisticated punter identifies those situations that the bookmakers have miscalculated. If you bet on every football match over an entire season you will lose.  No if’s or buts, you will lose money. The key to successful gambling is to be ultra selective in your bets and not chase losses. The more selective you are, the higher the chances are that you will show a profit. Do not get sucked into bets you wouldn’t normally have as an “interest” bet because the event is on tv.  “Interest” bets line the path to the poor house! Even the use of bookmakers free bets isnt going to get you out of trouble if you back everything that moves.

 

Bets of the week

 

A foray to the US and the NFL for this weeks’ action. Pursuing my ongoing thread of strong defences nullifying attacks, bet on the under 34pts available for the Tennessee Titans v Baltimore Ravens game at even money.  Neither team has a particularly potent offense and both have strong defences that are ranked 5th and 1st respectively. Defence, Defence, Defence!

Be careful what you wish for Part 1 – Man City

October 30, 2008

Be careful what you wish for Part 1 – Man City

 

Stop press…..Man City are officially the richest club on the planet!  The sale of the club by everyone’s favourite Thai despot to that well-known footballing stronghold of Abu Dhabi promises untold wealth pouring into Eastlands. Celeb fan, Noel Gallagher of Oasis, got straight in on the act.   “It’ll be nice to know that every gallon of petrol a Manchester United fan buys is going into our transfer kitty.”  Mad for it! I’m sure City fans will be dancing in the streets of Moss Side as they can now look forward to “doing a Chelsea/Blackburn/etc” and buying a shiny Premiership champagne holder. Who knows, maybe even that most odious of corporate competitions, the McChampions League, may be within their grasp in a few years time. Presumably Man City must have a trophy cabinet, but it’s a fair bet that the club don’t have to fork out a fortune on Brasso at the moment. But that’s all set to change.

 

Lording it over their poor neighbours United and avenging a century of living in their shadow.   How much better can life get?  I wonder, perhaps it a case of being careful what you wish for? The agony of turning out, week after week, year after year to witness one laughable performance after another has been how “Citteh” quantified true devotion in the blue half of Manchester.  Faint hopes of improvement will be discarded into the torrent of oil dollars that will spawn an insatiable craving for success.  Gone will be the slow-burn build up of anticipation for the fans as the manager fashions a team that might just be capable of a push towards a UEFA Cup place.  City fans will expect a top 6 finish this season and demand regular Champions League outings from that point on. Robihno-emblazoned shirts are presumably flying off the shelves in Surrey at this very moment.

 

There is a saying that “hunger is the best sauce”. The starvation rations Man City fans are accustomed to have been replaced by a feast fit for a sheikh and once they have gorged themselves on it, they may well find that a rich diet of constant success does not agree with their delicate constitutions.

 

And if it does all go Pete Tong, at least Man City fans can console themselves with the knowledge that at least they don’t support Newcastle.

 

Doctor Bet’s wealth tonic – keeping you wealthy and wise

 

“Must Win, Can’t Win”

 

It’s a strange time of year to talk about titles, promotion and relegation.  However, some sports such as cricket and rugby league are approaching the climax to their seasons.  It is during these crunch periods that you’ll hear that the next game is “a must win” fixture for team x or y.  These games provide massive opportunities for the punter.  The gambling public buys into the notion that the need to win translates into a tangible advantage.  The reality is far less romantic, ability and form triumph just as they do in non “must-win” games.  Always oppose “must win” teams where the odds are artificially short to reflect the need to gain a result.  In the US this is referred to as the “Must Win, Can’t Win” syndrome.  An all too close to home example – in the final game of the 2004/5 season, Norwich, who hadn’t won an away game all season, were a ludicrously best priced 11/8 away from home to beat Fulham simply because winning the game guaranteed Premiership safety.  Norwich lost 6-0!

 

 

Bets of the week

 

Talking of “must win can’t win” teams this week’s selection is to oppose the patched up Warrington Wolves visit the den of “Les Catalans” in Southern France.  It’s win or go home time for Warrington in the Super League. I hope they have booked their hols already because they simply concede far too many points to trouble the strong and resolute Frenchmen.  Take “Les Catalans” giving up 10 pts with SkyBet .  Always make sure you utilise the free bets on offer from bookmakers. 

Beijing Olympics: Lasting Memories

October 30, 2008

Beijing Olympics: Lasting Memories

 

What are your favourite Beijing memories? Lovely, girl-next-door, Becky Addlington  joyously celebrating two gold medals and breaking a world record while finding time to wave to her mum…. before the other competitors had even finished the race. Or was it brave Christine Ohuruogo striding to victory in the womens’ 400m (we’ll conveniently forget all about those missed drugs tests – hey, she won and she’s British so that’s all that really matters isn’t it?)

 

My buttons get pushed slightly differently.  The most vivid memory for me is the Cuban Tae Kwon Do entrant committing GBH on the umpire after his disqualification.  Most of you will recoil in horror but this may prove to be one of the best things that has ever happened to the Olympic movement. Why?  For decades any sport (or naff pan-European song “contest”) that involved judges to determine the winner has been beset with allegations of bias, often favouring the host country competitors.  The practice had become almost acceptable.  Commentators frowned and competitors complained but to no avail.  Now the world has changed. Next time a pompous oaf in a slightly too tight blazer and frighteningly flammable polyester slacks decides to rob a competitor of a medal they will think twice.  At the back of their minds they will be thinking that perhaps currying favour with the Olympic hosts, or pursuing some other dark political agenda isn’t quite worth the prospect of receiving a complete hiding from the competitor they have blatantly cheated.   This might be just enough to reawaken their dormant impartiality gene.  Stand up, Angel Matos of Cuba, you sir, are the true great Olympian hero of Beijing 2008.

 

Doctor Bet’s Wealth Tonic – keeping you wealthy and wise

 

“History is bunk” (Mark Twain, 1916)

 

Ever looked in the Racing Post and studied the “Top Bogey Teams” for football fixtures?  You are wasting your time – teams win because of greater ability, better coaching, fitness etc, not because in 8 out of the last 10 times this fixture was played their predecessors lost. Professional sportsmen operate on short term contracts. Half the starting eleven probably didn’t play last year let alone 5 years ago.  The same applies when considering matches involving “big clubs” – the history, stadium, fan base, transfer fees.  None of that will win the game. The opportunity for the savvy gambler is to identify a “big club” in a downward spiral. Week after week such a team can be opposed at good odds. People simply wouldn’t believe that Newcastle couldn’t beat any of Portsmouth, Derby (!),  Man City, Bolton, Middlesborough, Blackburn and Aston Villa at St James Park in 2007/8 – they didn’t and those who opposed them won a lot of money at good odds.  

 

History for history’s sake has no place in the gamblers armoury.

 

Bets of the week

 

Everton to beat WBA – 6/4. Everton are still a quality team playing against a side who won the weakest Championship in living memory last year and haven’t really strengthened. Early season often springs surprises so don’t go too mad but the Toffees wont get a licking!

 

For those with Betfair or spread betting accounts.  Lay/sell Philips Oduwo.  He may have a natty new barnet but his reputation as a choker means there’s limited downside to opposing Oduwo particularly when supported by a wave of patriotic money at inflated prices

 

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October 30, 2008

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