If the FA had balls!

If the FA had balls

 

It passed largely unnoticed and unremarked but last Friday, 26 October 2008, was the 145^th anniversary of the first meeting of the Football Association. The discussion, over a few ales in the Freemasons Tavern in Great Queen Street, sorted out the basic rules of the game and set the illustrious governing body on its way. Fast forward some 144 years to August 2007 and a few miles to the east from that very spot, the pockmarked, snaggle-toothed mug of one Carlos Alberto Tevez is beaming for photographers as he and fellow countryman, Javier Mascherano, are paraded for the press. In a deal comparable to Spurs capture of Ardiles and Villa twenty odd years previously, West Ham had stunned the footballing world with the signing of a pair of top-notch Argies. Hammers fans dropped their jellied eels in disbelief. But it was clear to all and sundry that Carlos and Jave hadn’t waved goodbye to the land of the tango and corned beef to ply their trade in the East End for too long.

 

And so it transpired. Carlos trotted up to Old Trafford for more “love this club” badge kissing with Manchester United left scratching their heads as to who they actually had to pay for his services when the initial “loan” arrangement ran out. Amid the claims and counterclaims over the involvement of third parties in the ownership of his registration, it soon became apparent that West Ham had breached any number of Premier League rules in his unorthodox signing. That the Hammers had escaped the relegation trapdoor by the skin of their teeth whilst fielding an ineligible player did not go down well with the teams who had taken the drop, chief among them Sheffield United and their universally adored manager Neil Warnock.

 

What the mandarins at Lancaster Gate should have done when first alerted to West Ham’s indiscretions was to show strong leadership and instruct the Premier League, in no uncertain terms, to dock points from West Ham, irrespective of the consequences for league position. There are plenty of precedents for draconian action in the face of financial jiggery pokery and transfer shenanigans. What they actually did, unsurprisingly, was prevaricate and fudge, imposing an initial £5.5m fine for the third party transfer dealings which the Hammers Icelandic biscuit tycoon owner knew would be easily dwarfed by the rewards of another year on the Premier League gravy train. Sheffield United continued to press their case, the FA gratefully accepted the shovel they had been handed and kept digging, their non-appealable tribunal awarding a rather more eye-watering £30m in damages against West Ham for loss of earnings. Spurred on by their cub’s successful action (and, presumably, the cajoling of sportslawyers4U.com) a group of individual Blades players are now seeking recompense for their lowered earnings.

 

It is high time that the “big clubs” are shown that they are not above the game’s rules and regulations, and if that means making an example of one of them, so much the better. The FA are very good at being tough with behemoths like Luton and Rotherham but seem strangely less steely in their resolve at the prospect of facing down one of the  bigger members of the old boys club. Dog and Duck teams the country over know that if you get caught fielding a ringer on a Sunday morning, the league will come down on you like a ton of bricks. Why the same principles should not apply in the rarefied echelons of the Premier League is unclear. With its failure to take decisive action the sport’s governing body has gone a long way to ensuring that the courtroom and not the football field will be where contentious promotion and relegation issues will be settled in future. Good work lads! But then did you expect any less from the suits who assured us that Steve McLaren was definitely the man they had wanted for the England job all along….

 

 

Doctor Bet’s Wealth Tonic – keeping you wealthy and wise

 

Bet with other peoples money before you bet with your own.

 

Many of you will have an account with Ladbrokes, Bet365, Corals, Hills etc. Most will have one account, some of you two and far fewer have three or more.   The question is why do you not have an account with all of the leading sites?  There is no cost to have an account. You are simply giving your money away. First, all of the bookmakers offer free bets as inducements to open an account and regularly have additional offers or bonuses.  Second, by having multiple accounts you have access to the best odds available for every event you wish to bet on and have access to all of the offers in the market place. Limiting yourself to one account is simply playing into the hands of the bookmakers. They already have the betting edge in their favour, don’t make that edge any bigger than it needs to be!  

 

Bets of the week

 

We are venturing far afield this week to the NRL Grand Final in Sydney, Australia, where the Melbourne Storm take on the Manly Sea Eagles. Between them they conceded a mere 6 pts in the semi finals.  In a previous article I remarked upon how good defences nullify strong offences.   Load up on a points tally of under 34, available at even money with a number of firms and dont forget to take advantage of those free bets.

 

Be careful what you ask for – Part II

Be careful what you wish for Part II – Newcastle United

 

Ah Newcastle, what evocative images that marvellous old name conjures up – Jackie Milburn looking forward to a simple dinner of a little fishy, on a little dishy, washed down with a bottle of broon. But all is not well in the land of Jimmy Nail, not well at all.

 

A few short months ago, the Toon Army were rejoicing. Upstanding members of society Freddy Sheppard and Co had been cast out of St James Park and the club’s salvation had come via that cheeky-chappy pedlar of chav wear Mike Ashley. Luverley jubberly, as they started to say up on the Tyne. Not only did Ashley take his considerable personal fortune up the A1(M), he cemented his place in the hearts of all Geordies by bringing back one of their favourites sons into the managerial fold, Joseph Kevin Keegan. The planets had again aligned and the future could hold nothing but never-ending success. Surely?

 

Keegan, Newcastle United Football Club and the Toon Army were, most definitely, made for each other. Keegan, he of the dodgy perm, best-passed-over pop career and a strange aversion to kipping in his Range Rover was undoubtedly a stellar talent as a player. But as a manager, it’s a different story. Spells at Newcastle, Fulham and Man City were memorable only for Kev’s adherence to the singular tactic of fielding a starting 11 comprised of two wingers, eight centre forwards and Norman Wisdom in goal, and for “loving it” if Newcastle could hang on to a seemingly insurmountable points advantage over Man Utd to grab the Premiership title –  they couldn’t. Beyond the limits of reason, Keegan was also given a shot at the England job. The country roundly thanked him for overseeing defeat in the last ever game at Wembley Stadium at the hands of the our old foes the Germans.

 

Newcastle United are a great club. In the same way that Blackpool and Old Etonians are great clubs. Namely, that they won things a very, very long time ago. The last time Newcastle won anything of note, the faces in the crowd were wearing flat caps to a man. But the supporters are so passionate about their team! Indeed they are. On the day of St Kevin’s appointment, fans queued round the block to pick up tickets for that night’s League Cup match against lower opposition, tickets let it not be forgotten, for seats that would have been left empty otherwise. Had it not been for King Kev, the game would have been played out in a near  deserted stadium.  Newcastle do play to large crowds, in the Premiership, but then it’s not really that difficult to get bums on seats for games against Liverpool, Man Utd and co. And all the while the Toon Army drone on monotonously about the success that should be the club’s birthright with the media complicit in their continuing delusions of greatness. It is, apparently, a given that the fans of clubs from gritty places oop north that used to make things are more steadfast in their support than those of fey, southern nancy types. They stick with their club through thick and thin. Strangely at odds to this popular myth, I cherish a personal reminiscence of watching Newcastle host Cambridge United in an old second division game in the mid-eighties. A match played in a dilapidated stadium which, if memory serves, was nigh-on empty. What sort of attendances would St James Park see after a prolonged spell outside the top flight I wonder?

 

So what caused the dream to sour, you may well ask. Southerners! And not only that, but a veritable “Kerknee marfeeah” as the shell suit clad denizens of Tyneside will tell you. With mini-me thug Dennis Wise brought in as Kev’s boss and upsetting the locals by insisting on wearing his pearly king suit to matches, it was only a matter of time before things came to a head. Keegan stormed out in a strop. Again. Mike Ashley put the club up for sale on the grounds that he can’t take his kiddiwinks to games and the Toon Army are hoping for a rich foreign sort to come to the club’s rescue and bring back the good times.

 

It brings a lump to your throat, doesn’t it!

 

Doctor Bet’s wealth tonic – keeping you wealthy and wise

“To be idle is a short road to death and to be diligent is a way of life; foolish people are idle, wise people are diligent” – Buddha

Knowing your facts and stats is essential as a punter.  There is no substitute for doing your homework and finding out every relevant factor influencing your bet.  The results can be astounding and hugely profitable for those who identify trends or opportunities unseen by others.  Approximately twenty years ago one of the greatest betting stings in history was executed by a nondescript individual who had noticed a statistic that virtually no else had ever thought about.  What were the chances of someone getting a hole in one at the British Open?  Up and down the country he travelled, frequenting back street bookmakers asking the owner to give him a price on a hole in one.  Well, when do you ever see one of those?  At hundreds of bookmakers bets were placed for a few pounds only, so as not to bring attention to his activities, at prices ranging from 20-1 to 100-1.  By the start of the event he stood to win a cool half a million pounds.  That is over a million in todays’ money.  The odds of a hole in one occurring at a major event are in fact around even money! The hole in one happened, the faceless punter collected his fortune and the rest as they say is history……..Do you think he had the nerve to ask if they had any free bets offers!!

 

Bets of the week

 

In keeping with the earlier part of my column I can’t pass up the opportunity to back against Newcastle until they sort their domestic issues out.  Fill your boots with the true cockney pearly kings, West Ham, to pile more misery on the Toon.  The Hammers are readily available at evens.

Never go back

No apologies, I’m a Norwich fan and this article is linked to them

Never go back.                                                                                                                                        

 

Another week, another generic report informing us that Jamie Cureton is really pumped up for the next match against [insert name of whoever Norwich happen to be playing] and is sure he will break his duck. These scoops increasingly have the hollow ring of a man desperately trying to engender a modicum of confidence in himself, let alone the great reading public of Norfolk.

 

Curo remains a Barclay darling but I’m not quite sure why. As a youngster he made the initial hesitant step from youth team to first XI, but like Chris Llewellyn, Adrian Coote, Lee Lee Lee Power and long line of others, he couldn’t hold down a regular place. Many will fondly remember his bright green barnet sported at Portman Road in April 1996 (those present may recall that he actually washed it off before entering the fray). Mike Walker quietly farmed him out and so started an unremarkable career as a jobbing journeyman lower league striker.

 

A decade passed without club and player reacquainting themselves. Jamie had found himself at Colchester and, with Chris Iwelumo as strike partner, he was in a rich vein of form. Scoring in the home and away fixtures, he further endeared himself to the Norwich faithful by not celebrating his goals as a mark of respect. As the season ended, little Jamie whacked in a transfer request rather pompously claiming the U’s level of ambition did not match his own. Peter Grant, having just seen mercenary midget Mekon Earnshaw engineer a dream move for himself to Premiership highflyers Derby (didn’t they just deserve each other!), and not known for his shrewd judgement in transfer dealings, snapped Curo up as an ideal replacement.

 

And so we all looked forward to JC carrying on where he had imperiously left off at Colchester. Only that didn’t really happen. It turned out that Jamie had a “Heroes” style hidden power, a mercurial talent for converting gilt edged chances into head-in-hands, how did he miss that one, utterances of profanities. Time and again a perfect ball would be slotted through and time and again JC would raise his thumb to the provider with a wan smile after fluffing the opportunity. Those with a number 10 and “Cureton” on the back of their XXL replica shirts will be quick to remind you that he has always had an eye for goal. A look at the stats will show he has scored 199 goals in a career of 538 games stretching back to 1994. So far reasonably impressive, but 101 of those were scored in a purple three season patch between 1998 and 2001. Add in the 24 that secured him the Championship’s Golden Boot at Colchester and you don’t need the intellect of a football agent to deduce that there have been many, ahem, lean seasons for JC.

 

It is a well known truism in football that returning to a club is never a good idea. Ask Mike Walker or Flecky.  We could have looked back on sepia-toned memories of cherubic Jamie and his verdant derby day bouffant, bless him. Instead, we’ll cherish slightly more painful memories of a player who would give Leon “the Assassin” Mackenzie a run for his money in preserving the pristine state of barn doors. With the latest set of accounts setting Mr Doncaster off on a fervent search for pips to set a squeaking and the manager signing a very similar player in Arturo Lupoli – well, similar except for Arturo being much younger, much quicker and an infinitely more clinical finisher – I predict the days of Jamie’s second coming may be drawing to an ignoble close. With the message already spread that Glenn’s January transfer war chest amounts to three buttons and a fruit machine token, Curo may well find that the long line of teams he has turned out for has a new addition just after Christmas.

 

Doctor Bet’s Wealth Tonic – keeping you wealthy and wise

 

“Self-respect is the fruit of discipline; the sense of dignity grows with the ability to say no to oneself.”  Rabbi Abraham Heschel

 

Perhaps the greatest lesson any punter can learn is that discipline is the key to profitability. Quite simply, in the vast majority of cases the bookmakers have set their odds correctly to ensure the house edge makes them profitable. The sophisticated punter identifies those situations that the bookmakers have miscalculated. If you bet on every football match over an entire season you will lose.  No if’s or buts, you will lose money. The key to successful gambling is to be ultra selective in your bets and not chase losses. The more selective you are, the higher the chances are that you will show a profit. Do not get sucked into bets you wouldn’t normally have as an “interest” bet because the event is on tv.  “Interest” bets line the path to the poor house! Even the use of bookmakers free bets isnt going to get you out of trouble if you back everything that moves.

 

Bets of the week

 

A foray to the US and the NFL for this weeks’ action. Pursuing my ongoing thread of strong defences nullifying attacks, bet on the under 34pts available for the Tennessee Titans v Baltimore Ravens game at even money.  Neither team has a particularly potent offense and both have strong defences that are ranked 5^th and 1^st respectively. Defence, Defence, Defence!

Be careful what you wish for Part 1 – Man City

Be careful what you wish for Part 1 – Man City

 

Stop press…..Man City are officially the richest club on the planet!  The sale of the club by everyone’s favourite Thai despot to that well-known footballing stronghold of Abu Dhabi promises untold wealth pouring into Eastlands. Celeb fan, Noel Gallagher of Oasis, got straight in on the act.   “It’ll be nice to know that every gallon of petrol a Manchester United fan buys is going into our transfer kitty.”  Mad for it! I’m sure City fans will be dancing in the streets of Moss Side as they can now look forward to “doing a Chelsea/Blackburn/etc” and buying a shiny Premiership champagne holder. Who knows, maybe even that most odious of corporate competitions, the McChampions League, may be within their grasp in a few years time. Presumably Man City must have a trophy cabinet, but it’s a fair bet that the club don’t have to fork out a fortune on Brasso at the moment. But that’s all set to change.

 

Lording it over their poor neighbours United and avenging a century of living in their shadow.   How much better can life get?  I wonder, perhaps it a case of being careful what you wish for? The agony of turning out, week after week, year after year to witness one laughable performance after another has been how “Citteh” quantified true devotion in the blue half of Manchester.  Faint hopes of improvement will be discarded into the torrent of oil dollars that will spawn an insatiable craving for success.  Gone will be the slow-burn build up of anticipation for the fans as the manager fashions a team that might just be capable of a push towards a UEFA Cup place.  City fans will expect a top 6 finish this season and demand regular Champions League outings from that point on. Robihno-emblazoned shirts are presumably flying off the shelves in Surrey at this very moment.

 

There is a saying that “hunger is the best sauce”. The starvation rations Man City fans are accustomed to have been replaced by a feast fit for a sheikh and once they have gorged themselves on it, they may well find that a rich diet of constant success does not agree with their delicate constitutions.

 

And if it does all go Pete Tong, at least Man City fans can console themselves with the knowledge that at least they don’t support Newcastle.

 

Doctor Bet’s wealth tonic – keeping you wealthy and wise

 

“Must Win, Can’t Win”

 

It’s a strange time of year to talk about titles, promotion and relegation.  However, some sports such as cricket and rugby league are approaching the climax to their seasons.  It is during these crunch periods that you’ll hear that the next game is “a must win” fixture for team x or y.  These games provide massive opportunities for the punter.  The gambling public buys into the notion that the need to win translates into a tangible advantage.  The reality is far less romantic, ability and form triumph just as they do in non “must-win” games.  Always oppose “must win” teams where the odds are artificially short to reflect the need to gain a result.  In the US this is referred to as the “Must Win, Can’t Win” syndrome.  An all too close to home example – in the final game of the 2004/5 season, Norwich, who hadn’t won an away game all season, were a ludicrously best priced 11/8 away from home to beat Fulham simply because winning the game guaranteed Premiership safety.  Norwich lost 6-0!

 

 

Bets of the week

 

Talking of “must win can’t win” teams this week’s selection is to oppose the patched up Warrington Wolves visit the den of “Les Catalans” in Southern France.  It’s win or go home time for Warrington in the Super League. I hope they have booked their hols already because they simply concede far too many points to trouble the strong and resolute Frenchmen.  Take “Les Catalans” giving up 10 pts with SkyBet .  Always make sure you utilise the free bets on offer from bookmakers. 

Beijing Olympics: Lasting Memories

Beijing Olympics: Lasting Memories

 

What are your favourite Beijing memories? Lovely, girl-next-door, Becky Addlington  joyously celebrating two gold medals and breaking a world record while finding time to wave to her mum…. before the other competitors had even finished the race. Or was it brave Christine Ohuruogo striding to victory in the womens’ 400m (we’ll conveniently forget all about those missed drugs tests – hey, she won and she’s British so that’s all that really matters isn’t it?)

 

My buttons get pushed slightly differently.  The most vivid memory for me is the Cuban Tae Kwon Do entrant committing GBH on the umpire after his disqualification.  Most of you will recoil in horror but this may prove to be one of the best things that has ever happened to the Olympic movement. Why?  For decades any sport (or naff pan-European song “contest”) that involved judges to determine the winner has been beset with allegations of bias, often favouring the host country competitors.  The practice had become almost acceptable.  Commentators frowned and competitors complained but to no avail.  Now the world has changed. Next time a pompous oaf in a slightly too tight blazer and frighteningly flammable polyester slacks decides to rob a competitor of a medal they will think twice.  At the back of their minds they will be thinking that perhaps currying favour with the Olympic hosts, or pursuing some other dark political agenda isn’t quite worth the prospect of receiving a complete hiding from the competitor they have blatantly cheated.   This might be just enough to reawaken their dormant impartiality gene.  Stand up, Angel Matos of Cuba, you sir, are the true great Olympian hero of Beijing 2008.

 

Doctor Bet’s Wealth Tonic – keeping you wealthy and wise

 

“History is bunk” (Mark Twain, 1916)

 

Ever looked in the Racing Post and studied the “Top Bogey Teams” for football fixtures?  You are wasting your time – teams win because of greater ability, better coaching, fitness etc, not because in 8 out of the last 10 times this fixture was played their predecessors lost. Professional sportsmen operate on short term contracts. Half the starting eleven probably didn’t play last year let alone 5 years ago.  The same applies when considering matches involving “big clubs” – the history, stadium, fan base, transfer fees.  None of that will win the game. The opportunity for the savvy gambler is to identify a “big club” in a downward spiral. Week after week such a team can be opposed at good odds. People simply wouldn’t believe that Newcastle couldn’t beat any of Portsmouth, Derby (!),  Man City, Bolton, Middlesborough, Blackburn and Aston Villa at St James Park in 2007/8 – they didn’t and those who opposed them won a lot of money at good odds.  

 

History for history’s sake has no place in the gamblers armoury.

 

Bets of the week

 

Everton to beat WBA – 6/4. Everton are still a quality team playing against a side who won the weakest Championship in living memory last year and haven’t really strengthened. Early season often springs surprises so don’t go too mad but the Toffees wont get a licking!

 

For those with Betfair or spread betting accounts.  Lay/sell Philips Oduwo.  He may have a natty new barnet but his reputation as a choker means there’s limited downside to opposing Oduwo particularly when supported by a wave of patriotic money at inflated prices

 

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